Tuesday, July 5, 2011

What a week

My range of emotions about the past week or so went something like this:

Traded for Robyn Regehr - Awesome, a shutdown defenseman that we really needed without giving up much. Darcy is finally free to do what he needs to do, I am excited for free agency!

Traded for Ehrhoff's rights - Whoa, really? I didn't think we really needed another puck moving D-man, but I guess I trust in Lindy to know what he needs. I am kind of scared that Ehrhoff could get 6 million per year...

Ehrhoff signed for 10/40 - Wow 10 years is a long time, but I can get on board with that cap hit and the way the contract is structured. I love that Darcy can put together these salary cap circumventing contracts now that he has a billionaire's money to play with. At this point I am drunk with the idea that we signed these defenseman early to convince Brad Richards that we are a cup contender...

July 1
Hearing rumors that Pegula has flown his private jet to Missisaugua - Holy Crap Its Happening, Plan The Parade!!!!!

Signed Ville Leino for 6 years @4.5 million per - Wait we need a center, isn't he a left wing? Hasn't he only been scoring goals since (quick look up on phone) last year's playoffs? He is making more than Drew Stafford?? 3 million per year more than Gerbe? I don't really get it, sounds like a panic move by Pegula. Not feeling great about this.

Hearing they plan to use Leino at center - I guess now the move makes a little more sense, but we have been sold on wingers at center before (Hecht, Boyes) and it hasn't worked out. I am a little skeptical. 4.5 seems like an awful lot for a guy with one good season. He played on Briere's wing in Philly. We don't have any Brieres in Buffalo.

There is some talk now that they will still go out and get a #1 center from a team at the cap floor in exchange for a bunch of players with big cap hits, but I don't see that happening. I think they are done. Now that most or all of the big name free agents are signed, there are still several teams that are way below the $48 million cap floor, but looking through these teams I don't think they will really have much trouble getting there. Most of these teams have 3-4 RFAs that are still unsigned, and although Nashville is 12 million under right now they have Shea Weber to sign still. I don't think there is a team out there that needs to acquire Roy, Hecht and Boyes just to get to the floor.

Regier says they will continue to look at the trade market to see if they can get better, but I think that is what you have to say right now. Of course they aren't going to say "Ta-Da!" and be finished with it. If an amazing opportunity comes up of course they will take it, but I think they are happy with what they did and will go into the season with essentially this roster. The Stastny and Spezza talk is, frankly, ridiculous.

Overall I think we got better, but only on defense. I don't think we are any better on offense really, unless one of the rookies can provide an unexpected spark. We essentially traded Tim Connolly for Leino. While I am happy Connolly is gone and excited to see Leino play, I don't believe it is a big upgrade. I am glad to see we are locking guys up for a few years. I just hope Pegula isn't blowing his load in the first offseason. There will be good players available every year, we have to make sure we are making good smart signings not just going and getting whoever will say yes.

Monday, May 2, 2011

Top Undrafted Rookies

With the lockout still on, for now, undrafted free agents are caught in a definite state of limbo. Teams cannot contact them, they cannot sign with teams, and the likelihood any of this changes is not in sight. Still these players have go one to be vital members of their teams. Here is a look at the top ten Undrafted Rookies that the Bills should take a long look at.

10) Matt Murphy OT/OG UNLV

The Bills worked Murphy out early on, but did not take a flyer on him during the draft. A four year starter a UNLV Murphy could develop into a player that could give us some depth along the offensive line.

9) Scott Lutrus, ILB UCONN

A player who comes to the NFL fully polished. You know what you are getting with Lutrus a strong player who is not going to make many mistakes. Could make an impact on special teams at the least.

8) Jeff Tarpinian ILB Iowa

Like Lutrus a strong player from a strong program. Tarpinian is a much better athlete however and his speed could make an impact.

7) Ricardo Locketter WR Fort Valley State

Huge potential here. Ran a 4.37 40 yard dash and has the size to compete in the NFL. Good turn into a starter.

6) Mark Herzlich OLB Boston College

If it was not for a bout with cancer Herzlich most likely would have been drafted very early. Still I am surprised he went undrafted. He fits our scheme and is a high character guy. He could become a major steal.

5) Ryan Evan RB Viginia Tech

A big punishing running back is really something we are missing from our team. At the least he could develop into a short yardage specialist.

4) Steven Friday DE/OLB Virginia Tech

Other Hokie here, but this was in a pure edge rusher. Good size, good speed, and a good chance to make the team.

3) Kristofer O'Dowd C USC

If we the plan is to keep Eric Wood at guard we need to look for a center. O'Dowd is the best of the bunch left undrafted and his size sets him apart from the rest.

2) Joe Lefeged S Rutgers

If I would have heard this name in Round 4 instead of Da'Norris Searcy I would have been really happy. Lefeged is very talented and can make a special teams impact from Day 1

1) Cedric Thornton DT/DE South Arkansas

I do not think we can have to many defensive lineman. Thronton is a hard worker and will make the team if signed.

After the draft I still think we have questions in our secondary, in our interior line on both sides of the ball, and at pass rushing lineback. Getting a few of these guys could helps our team a great deal.

Draft Grades

Round 1: Marcel Dareus DE/DT Alabama

When drafting in the top 5 a team needs to find a player that changes the team as soon as they are drafted. Dareus fits that bill, he is a perfect fit for our 3-4/4-3 hybrid defense and can fulfill just about every position along the defensive line. Grade A+

My pick: Dareus

Round 2: Aaron Williams DB Texas

There are a lot of questions in our secondary: Do we resign Drayton Floerence and/or Donte Witner? Will Terrence McGee and Leodie McKelvin be healthy in 2011? The questions go on and on, the pick of Williams makes these questions easier to digest. Williams can play either CB or SS and will challenge for playing time on Day 1. Grade: B+

My pick- Williams

Round 3: Kelvin Sheppard ILB LSU

We knew we needed to upgrade our inside linebacking unit which is equal parts too small and too old. Shepper is not going to wow anyone athletically, but he was highly productive playing in the best conference in college football. He has good size and has good intangibles. The Bills think tank liked him enough to pass on Martez Wilson, whom I would have selected here. Grade: B

My pick - Martez Wilson ILB, Illinois

Round 4: Da'Norris Searcy S UNC

When I first heard this pick my thought was who? Even upon further research I am still a bit dumbfounded by the pick. There were definitely better safeties still available and better value picks still to be found. But the last time I had this same feeling was when we drafted Jairus Byrd. Grade: C-

My pick - Clint Boling OG/OT Georgia

Round 4: Chris Hairston OT Clemson

Hariston is a solid pick here. He has good size and strength numbers and played against tough competition in college. We had to address the offensive line at some point and Hairston is a solid pick up here. Grade: B

My pick - Hairston

Round 5: Johnny White RB UNC

I will also think what if about this pick, as in, what if we had taken Ricky Stanzi with this pick. Initially, this pick really upset me. White is not going to see a lot of playing time behind Jackson and Spiller, but after some research the pick makes sense. He is a versatile player who is easily as comfortable on special teams as he is in the backfield. He is also a good receiver out of the backfield and is considered a high character guy. Still he could have got Stanzi here. Grade: B-

My pick - Ricky Stanzi, QB Iowa

Round 6: Chris White ILB Miss State

White was seen by many as a late round prospect mainly because of his poor instinct. To me he is destined to be at the very most a special teamer. We would have gotten much more value going for Quan Sturdivant here, whom I think has much more potential. Grade: D

My pick- Quan Sturduvant ILB UNC

Round 7: Justin Rodgers CB Richmond

If Rodgers makes the team it will be as a special teamer, but not as a returner (where he has the most skill). He is not particularly big, not is he particularly sound in coverage. The Bills brain trust must have seen something here that I am missing. Maybe I am just knit picking a 7th round pick. Grade C-

My pick - Clint Mattews DE/OLB South Carolina

Round 7: Michael Jasper DT Bethal

A big, and I do mean big, project. A great feel good story as he has lost a ton of weight to get into playing shape, but other than that I cannot tell you what Jasper brings to the team. Here's to hoping. Grade C -

My pick: Cedric Thorntan DT South Arkansas

Overall, I really liked our draft for the most part. Dareus will be very, very good. I questions some of our late round picks. If this is truly where you build your team we have some more work to do if we ever to get to free agency. But, I do think he made a pick enough impact in the early rounds to overcome these questions in the later rounds.

Overall Grade: B

Friday, April 15, 2011

Sabre's Up 1-0

There are a lot of adjectives anyone watching the first playoff game between the Flyers and Sabres last night could use to describe the game last night, but one nobody was use it pretty. The game was a slug fest- more like a series of scrums with some hockey in the middle - in which not even the goalies were immune as each was tested every time they held the puck. The game was a bit rocky for the Sabres at the start as the team gave up some dumb penalties, but managed to kill of every powerplay. Killing 38 seconds worth of 5-3 hockey was especially huge, as was the killing off which seems liked an entire powerplay where Paul Gaustad was stickless. The games only goal came when Patrick Kaleta glided home a rebound into the back of the net. Even this goal was ugly as Kaleta got little to nothing on the shot, but he was at the right place at the right time to give the Sabres the lead. Ryan Miller carried the Sabres to victory stooping all 30 shots he faced and showing no signs of the injury that cost him a few games down the stretch run. Miller's play combined with the physical play of the Sabres 3rd and 4th lines gave the Sabres the victory. Heading into game two there is plenty the Sabres can to improve their chances for victory: 1) Limit our penalties: We took 5 penalties in Game 1. I think only Myers penalty on a breakaway was justifiable. The Flyers are struggling to score, we cannot give them these opportunities. 2) Take it to Bobrovsky: Our only goal was scored off a rebound. Brobrovsky simple does not have the experience to handle the game at this level. We need to test him often and early by attacking the net at every chance. 3) Do not back down: I was very glad to see us take the fight to Philly in Game 1. In Game 2 I want to see more of it, especially with a chance to go up 2-0. Overall, this game was not anything spectacular, but a win in the playoffs is a win in the playoffs. Getting a victory in Philly was great, but getting 2 wins and Philly would be beautiful.

Thursday, April 14, 2011

Ruff to Minnesota?

With the playoffs about to begin in mere hours for the Sabres speculation has began about where Lindy Ruff will be next year. The St. Paul Pioneer Press has gone as far as stating that Ruff's destination is: Minnesota.

For a moment I get the writer is trying to say. Not to many people think the Minnesota job is all that attractive and Minnesota does not have wads of cash so getting a "big name" coach might be out of the question. However, his logical next step (Lindy Ruff) is where he losses me. Look at Lindy, he cannot believe either.


I feel you could use his logic to make any coach seem like a viable option for the Wild. In any sport the coaching fraternity is close knit group where it does not take six degree to connect coaches to other coaches and players. Just because Ruff worked with someone on the Wild does mean he is going there anytime soon. With a bit of digging I am sure you could find someone Ruff worked closely with on most NHL teams.

I do not think anyone else outside of Buffalo think Ruff declined a contract extension because he does not want to be in Buffalo. The team is going through an ownership change and is overhauling everything from the concession stands to how the team evaluates talent. If you were the coach would you not take a moment to check out everything before you signed on the dotted line?

Long story short I, and I think many other, highly doubt that Ruff is going anywhere anytime soon. Hopefully, Ruff continues his run in Buffalo next year after a deep run in the playoffs.

Friday, April 8, 2011

Step Up Years

As the draft approaches and we look to what the Bills need to get, it is easy to forget what we already have. Without any doubt the Bills need help on both sides of the ball, but that begs the question: who do we already have that can help fill our need areas? Below are my list of players who need to take a giant step forward to have an impact for the Bills. Honorable mention Jaris Byrd, FS: Injury plagued year hampered this former Pro Bowlers development. Improved play could help solidfy the secondary. Marcus Easly, WR: Lost all of last year due to injury, but many were abuzz about his talent. Donald Jones and David Nelson played well, but Easly may have more talent. Can he push Lee Evans? Can he make an impact in our young WR group? Eric Wood, C/G: If he stays healthy, I think he can develop into a Pro Bowler. He has everything you want in an interior lineman. I think he will detact the demeanor of our offensive line, again, if he can stay on the field. Top 5 Players who need to step it up. 5) Leodis McKelvin, CB It is really time to figure out what impact McKelvin can have for the Bills. Is he just a returner or can he be the shut down corner we thought he could be when he was drafted? He needs to stay healthy in order to make an impact, but marked improvement in his play and pay huge divedends for the Bills defense. 4) Alex Carrington, DE A third round pick from last season had difficulty cracking the lineup until the end of the season. With the departure of Marcus Stroud, Carrington is going to get the first chance to step in and fill the void. If Carrington comes in and plays well our run defense can be drastically improved. 3) CJ Spiller, RB Spiller showed glimpses of potential (against New England) and looked lost in other (most) games the rest of the season. The Bills can win without Spiller, but they can win a lot more if Spiller is making big plays in all facets of the game (running, pass catching, and returning). Spiller development is crucial if the Bills have any desires to contend with the better teams of the AFC. 2) Torrel Troup, NT Another top pick from last year that did not make a huge impact right away. His ability to anchor a 3-4 will decided how much 3-4 the Bills play this year. Troup could give the Bills defense versatility and flexibility in shifting between different sets. He could also give Williams a huge help on the line. 1) Demetrius Bell, LT In his first year at LT, Bell was horrible. In his second year, Bell showed signs of improvement. In year 3, it is time to see if Bell is the real deal. Does he develope into a dependable starter? Could he become a Pro-Bowl talent? Is he just a prospect that will never get there? Bell's play can determine how our line plays this year, which can determine just how good we are this year.

Friday, March 18, 2011

Bills Draft Needs

The Bills have a lot of draft needs. The 3-4 defense still does not have the right players to be successful. The team is without a true "franchise" QB. The offensive line needs to have someone other than Cornell Green at RT. Offensively I think our team is good enough to win some ball games, but or defense is still really bad. Here I offer my moves on draft day if I made the decisions for the Bills.



Round 1: Von Miller OLB Texas A&M



Von Miller is simply the most complete OLB in this years draft. He is a the best pass rushing prospect and has shown the ability the play against the pass. This skill set is perfect for the Bills hybrid defense as Miller can play as both a 3-4 and 4-3 OLB. Miller is a star in the making.



Other Possibilities



1) Blaine Gabbert - QB Missouri. If he goes #1 Miller is the easy pick, but if he doesn't than the Bills have a potential franchise changing decision on their hands. Faced with that I think you have to err on the side of the QB, but I think Miller is an impact player from Day 1.



2) Marcell Dareus - DT/DE Alabama. Another player who can fit multiple position in our hybrid defense. His stock is soaring, but I think Miller or Gabbert would make a bigger impact.



Round 2: Martez Wilson ILB Illinois



Think of this guy as a poor man's Patrick Willis. He is big, he is fast and is capable of playing in either a 3-4 or a 4-3. He is the big ILB we need to put beside POZ or to replace him. Getting Wilson here is a steal - his stock is based more on the lack of need for ILB in the draft than on his talent.



Other Possibilities



1) An OT: If we go with Gabbert we have to automatically look to help him, someone like Derek Sherrod of Mississippi State. There are a lot of OTs in that Late Round 1 early Round 2 range we could pick up. This year's class at OT is deep, but not outstanding. We could benefit from that here or in round 3.



2) A 3-4 DE: Again this part of the draft is unpredictable, but the 3-4 DE class is a lot like the OT class. Someone with Round 1 talent will drop here and depending on we go in Round 1, we could look to add to the defensive line here.



Round 3: Marcus Gilbert OT Florida

I like this big here because of the value. I simply do not see a whole lot of difference between the OTs that are given First Round grades and Gilbert. He played against top talent and played well. He could immediately fill a void a RT and possible move over to the left side if need be.



Other possibilities


1) Ras I-Dowling CB UVA - A big physical corner with really speed. He could be a welcome addition to a secondary that played out of character last year.

2) Allen Baily DE Miami - Physically there is a lot to like about this guy, but he did not handle himself well at the Senior Bowl or at the Combine. He has the physical tools, but can he mentally handle the NFL? I pass on him here because of those question marks.


3) Johnny Patrick CB Louisville - Terrence McGee is not getting any younger, so I would not be surprised if we take a CB early. Patrick has good size and speed, but I think he would be a reach here.


Round 4: Colin Kaepernick QB Nevada


We have two 4th round picks. I like Kaepernick here, but not in Round 2. I do not know if he will be around here, but I am betting he will be. He has a strong arm, is athletic, and has started the process of becoming a more polished passer. I think he is a perfect fit in Buffalo, he can develop for a year or two behind Fitz and possible become a starter.


Other possibilities


1) Terrence Tolliver WR LSU - Tolliver is big and fast. Lee Evans is not getting any younger and beside Stevie Johnson we do not have a lot of proven WR depth. I could see Tolliver getting targeted here.


2) Kelvin Sheppard ILB LSU - If we do not get Wilson in the second, we would have to take a long look at Sheppard here. This guy could give us great depth at ILB.


3) DeMarcus Love OT/OG Arkansas - Has seen his stock free fall because teams cannot figure out if he is a OT or an OG. I think that gives him value in Round 4.

Round 4: Lawrence Guy DE

We need some more depth at DE. I would like to see them play Carrington a bit more, but I have seen enough of Spencer Johnson to know he needs to be replaced. Guy can play this position and move to 4-3 DT in other schemes.

Other Possibilities:

1) Lance Kendricks TE Wisconsin - A good talent, but a lack of speed is hurting his stock. I do not think he is the potential play maker we need at TE.

2) Austin Pettis WR Boise State - A guy who played well in every game in college and our WR depth is not the most proven.

3) Owen Marecic FB Stanford - Played both sides of the ball at Stanford. He would gives us a great presence on special teams.

Round 5: Jermey Beal DE/OLB Oklahoma

It was a tough choice between Salas and Beal. Both suffer from similar issues - really productive in games and not during the combing or Senior game circuit. Beal gets the edge because I feel we have a bigger need at OLB than at WR.

Other Possibilities:

1) Greg Salas WR Hawaii -All Salas did at Hawaii was catch the football (285 Career Receptions), so I do not care if he has not timed well. He is productive and has played in a system where route running is key. Should make an adjustment to the NFL easier.

2) Cheta Ozougwu, DE/OLB Rice - Another pass rusher could help here. Had a bad senior year after a very productive junior campaign.

Round 6: Buster Skrine CB Chattanooga

This guys is a Terrence McGee clone. Has great timed speed and decent size. I would take a chance on him here as he presents more upside than other available players.

Round 7: Scott Lutrus ILB UConn

A really underrated prospect who is the product of a school that really focuses on developing its players. While, he will not blow anyone away during testing he was a tackling machine and will add much needed depth to our line backing corps.

So my draft was pretty defensive heavy, but I figured it would be that way. We simply have so many holes to fill there and I feel this draft does a lot to met those needs.

Gabbert shines at Pro-Day


Think of Blaine Gabbert's pro day as a final exam test, of sorts, in which Gabbert correctly answered 44 out of 49 questions. Gabbert's score of 90% is pretty good.

Actually according to NFL scouts in observance of Gabbert's scripted pro day workout, his performance was "outstanding."

Off those 5 incorrect answers only one was blatantly missed by Gabbert (a big overthrow), three were just bad questions (dropped passes by Gabberts D2 WR groups), and another could be correct depending on the scorer (the WR had a chance but did not get their hands on the ball). Very good indeed.

Pro days are scripted and the defense is air, so you need to take Gabberts performance with a grain of salt. But couple this with his size, his above average athleticism, and this workout, Gabbart is flying up draft charts. Many see him now as the #1 QB available and a what Cam Newton could be if he gains some accuracy.

What does this mean for the Bills? If Gabbart slips by Carolina, he will be available when the Bills pick do we make the move? Gabbart is a potential franchise qb. His skill set seems ideal for Chan Gailey's spread offense - a blend of athleticism and accuracy - with the size to be a big time NFL QB.

I know one thing if we are taking a QB this solidifies the fact that this QB needs to be Blaine Gabbert.

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Linebackers shine at Combine

In order to be fully successful in the 3-4 defense the Bills need an ample amount of capable linebackers to both plug up the middle and rush the quarterback off the edge. To linebackers who do just that, shinned during the combine.

Martez Wilson, an inside linebacker from Illinois, definitly has the size (6'3'' 250 ibs) to man the middle in a 3-4 defense. The question remained what type of middle linebacker could he be: an athletic game changer like Patrick Willis or plain run stuffer. It seems he could be a mix of both. Wilson looked good during drill work in space and showed explosiveness during testing. While he did not post a 4.5 40, he showed adequate athleticism throughout the day. Wilson is slowly rising up to draft boards and could be a Round 2 steal.

Von Miller, an outside linebacker from Texas A and M, solidified he status as the top pass rusher in the draft. Miller clocked in with a 4.53 40 yard dash and added 9 ibs since the Senior Bowl. The added bulk did not limit his athleticism in the least. Miller also did very well in drills showing great coverage skills and the ability to cover space. Miller may not be just a pass rusher after all.

Performances at the combine do not cause NFL success, but both of these athletes showed good skills and the ability to get better. Both took what NFL scouts told them they needed to work on (Miller - bulking up and Wilson - working against the pass) and showed improvements. The Bills should take a long look at each in Round 1 and Round 2.

Monday, February 28, 2011

Sanders meets with Bills

About a week ago former Indianapolis Colts safety and current free agent, Bob Sanders, meet with Bills coaches and officials at One Bills Drive.

Sander was recently cut by the Colts and can sign with any NFL team before the NFL's current CBA expires on March 3rd.

There are two issues with Sanders and one may be the cause of the other. First, is Sanders' size. He is not very big, but he plays physically all over the football field. This issue could be the cause of the mounting list of season ending injuries Sanders suffered with the Colts. He last full season with the Colts was in 2007 a year in which Sanders was named the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year.

If the price is right on Sanders his addition to be great for a very young defense. With two free agent safeties - Donte Witner and George Wilson - the Bills face an uncertain future at the position.

Giving Sanders a shot could pay huge dividends for the Bills, but relying on this health could be far to risky. If the Bills put together an incentive laden contract to Sanders - based his ability to both perform and stay on the field- he would be a solid addition to the team.